Nigeria’s Single-Digit Food Inflation Short-lived as Prices Surge Amid Ramadan

Nigeria’s return to single-digit food inflation has proven short-lived as prices rose in February as the start of the holy month of fasting by Islamic faithful saw a rise in the demand for some items.

Food inflation quickened to 12.12 percent from 8.89 percent in the previous month, according to new data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The Consumer Price Index report published by the NBS on Monday showed that food inflation — which accounts for roughly half of Nigeria’s overall inflation basket — was 14.86 percentage points lower than the rate recorded in February 2025 (26.98 percent).

However, on a month-on-month basis, food inflation rose sharply. The food inflation rate stood at 4.69 percent in February 2026, up by 10.70 percentage points compared with -6.02 percent recorded in January 2026.

“The increase can be attributed to the rise in the average prices of beans, carrots, okazi leaf, cassava tuber, crayfish, millet flour, yam flour, snails, ogbono (apon) – dried unground, cowpeas and other food items,” the NBS report said.

The bureau added that the average annual rate of food inflation for the twelve months ending February 2026 was 19.08 percent, which is 18.31 percentage points lower than the 37.40 percent recorded in February 2025.

Despite the rise in food prices, the West African nation’s headline inflation rate declined for the twelfth consecutive month, easing slightly to 15.06 percent in February from 15.10 percent in January 2026.

Core inflation — which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce and energy — stood at 15.88 percent year-on-year in February, representing a decline of 9.78 percentage points compared with 25.66 percent recorded in February last year.

On a month-on-month basis, core inflation rose to 0.89 percent in February, up by 2.58 percentage points from -1.69 percent recorded in January.

The average twelve-month annual inflation rate for the period ending February was 22.00 percent, which was 5.25 percentage points lower than the 27.25 percent recorded in February 2025.

“Food inflation, however, may edge higher on a month-on-month basis, as Ramadan-related stockpiling and reduced farming activities drive prices for key staples, thereby exerting upward pressure on monthly headline inflation,” analysts at Meristem said.

Meristems commodities price tracker showed rising prices for staples, halting months-long declines in staples like maize and sorghum. Paddy rice and Soya beans posted stronger price increases.